We are presently in the midst of yet another fantastic election year in the United States. Every day or so, you probably see articles on social media or on the television about the election and all the arguing over who best to lead America truly is or what naughty thing one candidate said about another over their looks or what shoes they wear. But do American voters care about nonsense like this? Not even close.
American voters care about the issues facing their country, even if the politicians and candidates themselves seem not to. The most important issue to them, by and large, is the state of the American economy. According to a Gallup poll that was conducted in May of 2015, 86 percent of voters identified the economy as “extremely important” or “very important”, which largely trumped other big issues such as terrorism or immigration.
President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party have been in charge for the last seven years, and how people view the state of the economy will most assuredly have a major impact on how the Democratic candidate, whomever it is, to succeed Mr. Obama into the presidency will fare against the Republican challenger, whomever that would be. So, the Democrats will very much be paying attention to a slew of economic indicators, and arguably, according to Gallup, things do not appear to look very bad for the Democrats.
As of December 2015, 79 percent of Americans said that they were satisfied with their standard of living, and 62 percent said that it was getting better for them. Compare that to the same figures from November 2008, just before Mr. Obama’s election, when 69 percent were satisfied and a mere 35 percent said it was getting better. Economic confidence indicators are improved at the end of 2015 compared to where it was when the Obama presidency began. Despite some lingering pessimism, consumer confidence steadily rose throughout the last seven years thanks to an improving job market (albeit slightly), falling gas prices and a stabilizing stock market.
Another poll in January 2016 showed Americans also seem to have a more positive view of the economy, with at least 26 percent of those surveyed saying the economy was excellent or good, despite another 29 percent saying that it was doing poor. 37 percent said that the economy is getting better, though 58 percent said that the economy was still getting worse.
Even though overall there still is a slightly negative view of how the economy is improving or not improving, those numbers are improvements from past data, and that can serve to fuel some positive prospects for the Democrats heading into November and may stymie Republican charges that the economy is too weak and that the Democrats have hurt it more than help.
Even more helpful to the Democratic cause could be the unemployment rate, which as of December 2015 sat at 5.0%, the lowest that rate had been for the entirety of Mr. Obama’s presidency. Current non-farm job growth has also improved from its lowest point in March 2009 where 824,000 jobs were lost. Since then, job growth has been in positive territory, with over 7 million jobs having been created. Again, you would think this sounds like good news for the Democrats, yes?
There are holes however; over 7.5 million people are still unemployed, and nearly half of them have been out of work for three months or more. Some 663,000 are still discouraged over poor job prospects, such as lacking particular education or skills, or even age. 2.4 million have not searched for week in at least four weeks. Average hourly earnings have been stagnant and in fact fell by a penny in December 2015, where it sits at $25.24.
Democrats, if they are to defend the presidency and contend for control of the Congress, need to hope that in some areas where they are lacking, they have more concrete plans to improve.
Republicans, if they want to sweep Congress again and retake the presidency, will probably want to play up on these weak points and argue they have better plans to improve the economy even better.
Whoever makes the better case, if polls are to be believed, will likely win the election because so many Americans view the economy as vitally important. Thus, it goes without saying: Americans vote with their pocketbooks.
Christopher Witt
Reporter